In the past various economists have tried create predictive models for the different shipping markets. These were mainly focused on the dry and/or wet bulk. On the other hand various national and international entities have kept themselves busy with creating multi-country models to simulate the dynamics between the different nations in this world. The third group of dynamic simulations are enterprise models, some with great detail, others on a pure economic level, but with multiple enterprises and (limited) market functions.
Combination of views
What would we get when we combine these three economic views and focus them on the maritime market? A model that is consistent on all three levels of economic activity. This is exactly what we are trying to achieve at Delft University of Technology in cooperation with the University of Antwerp. A model where trade and transport demand is dependent on the differences between the countries and their development. To get better results these countries will be grouped in maritime relevant trade blocks. On the next level trade in volume will be derived from the trade in values (including services). These trade volumes will form the basis for consistent shipping markets such as dry-bulk, wet-bulk and to some extend general cargo/containers. Even submarkets for each route are considered as an option, as the detail level of the model is set to one week intervals. A consistent and widely variable market is thus created for shipping companies to trade in. But not only shipping companies will be present in this simulation, other players such as newbuilding yards, their suppliers, ports and banks will also populate the simulation. This paper will describe the efforts foreseen and steps already taken to develop such a model. While the basis needs to be solid, a modular approach is taken to be able to implement improvements easily for each of the modules.
Contact
Jeroen Pruyn j.f.j.pruyn@tudelft.nl